The Monkey Index: can a monkey beat the market?
Human players’ cumulative net paper P&L against the Monkey Index, pool scored from Daily #8, 2026-07-12. Completed desks from today join this figure live.
Five blind charts each day. Human players against 11 seeded random callers. Same tape for everyone.
Can a monkey beat the market? Sometimes, and that is the point. Random calls outperform human chart readers over short runs, so the score above is the long answer. Across 18 settled dailies the crowd has taken 14 days and the monkey 4. This page compares players with a random benchmark on historical charts. It does not compare either side with simply buying and holding the S&P 500.
Play today’s five blind charts →How this score works
Each of the 11 constituents is a seeded random caller. The seed comes from the calendar date, so all 11 make the same calls for every player, and their calls never change once a day settles. The monkey never sees the five hidden sessions.
The index return on a chart is the equal weight mean of the 11 signed stakes applied to the real five day move. Monkey calls always stake the minimum confidence. Human stakes scale with stated confidence from 55 to 100. Every call trades fixed nominal paper capital with no compounding.
A day goes to the crowd when more than half of the desks that finished all five charts beat the index return. Ties go to the monkey.
The dollar figure is the running bonus pool. Every settled call moves a desk by its own return minus the index return on that chart, in paper money, so the total is exactly what the field has taken off the monkey. The ledger below shows each day’s pool move and the running balance.
Limits of this comparison
- Paper money. This is a game score, not an investable return.
- Players self-select and participation varies by day. The dollar total is an aggregate, so it grows with the number of settled calls.
- Monkeys always stake minimum confidence while humans size up and down, so the score mixes direction reading with stake sizing.
- Alpha is paid on each desk’s session-start bankroll, so a large bankroll moves the pool more than a fresh one on the same calls.
- Charts come from S&P 500 names, which bakes in survivorship and an upward drift. Both sides trade the same tape, so the comparison stays level even though absolute returns skew positive.
- One seeded basket of 11 callers is a reproducible game benchmark, not a statistical control. Ties go to the monkey.
- The pool ledger began on Daily #8. Earlier days count toward the record and index return only.
The ledger
| Daily | Date | Index | Desks | Beat it | Pool day | Pool total | Day to |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #18 | 2026-07-22 | +0.23% | 1,382 | 58% | +$55,786 | +$317,893 | CROWD |
| #17 | 2026-07-21 | -0.30% | 1,409 | 72% | +$226,320 | +$262,107 | CROWD |
| #16 | 2026-07-20 | -0.05% | 31 | 77% | +$4,343 | +$35,787 | CROWD |
| #15 | 2026-07-19 | +0.14% | 24 | 33% | -$11,172 | +$31,444 | MONKEY |
| #14 | 2026-07-18 | +0.26% | 25 | 76% | +$3,591 | +$42,616 | CROWD |
| #13 | 2026-07-17 | +0.09% | 42 | 62% | +$1,597 | +$39,024 | CROWD |
| #12 | 2026-07-16 | +0.01% | 43 | 79% | +$21,834 | +$37,428 | CROWD |
| #11 | 2026-07-15 | +0.16% | 44 | 61% | +$834 | +$15,594 | CROWD |
| #10 | 2026-07-14 | -1.00% | 72 | 72% | +$19,358 | +$14,760 | CROWD |
| #9 | 2026-07-13 | +0.11% | 83 | 57% | +$4,343 | -$4,599 | CROWD |
| #8 | 2026-07-12 | -0.59% | 75 | 33% | -$8,941 | -$8,941 | MONKEY |
| #7 | 2026-07-11 | -0.26% | 132 | 75% | · | · | CROWD |
| #6 | 2026-07-10 | -0.49% | 476 | 73% | · | · | CROWD |
| #5 | 2026-07-09 | +0.02% | 17 | 18% | · | · | MONKEY |
| #4 | 2026-07-08 | -0.08% | 30 | 37% | · | · | MONKEY |
| #3 | 2026-07-07 | -0.35% | 36 | 53% | · | · | CROWD |
| #2 | 2026-07-06 | -0.05% | 9 | 56% | · | · | CROWD |
| #1 | 2026-07-05 | -0.10% | 4 | 100% | · | · | CROWD |
Questions about the Monkey Index
Can a monkey beat the market?
On any given day, often. Across 18 settled dailies the index has returned -2.24% and the crowd has taken 14 of those days. Random calls with small stakes set a demanding floor, and beating them consistently is the whole game. A short winning run proves little on either side.
What is the Monkey Index?
A daily benchmark of 11 seeded random callers. Each flips UP or DOWN on the same five blind historical charts every player receives, stakes the minimum confidence, and settles on the real five day moves.
How much has the monkey made?
The index has returned -2.24% across 18 trading days. Against the field, the running paper money score is +$317,893 in the humans’ ledger, positive when players are ahead.
Is the monkey really random?
Yes. The calls come from a random generator seeded by the calendar date, so every player sees the same 11 monkeys and the calls never change once a day settles. The monkey never sees the hidden sessions.
Why 11 monkeys?
An odd number means the basket always has a net lean on every chart, and the equal weight mean keeps one lucky call from moving the index much.
How do I get my own record against it?
Finish the five daily charts. The game keeps your career wins and losses against the index and classifies your desk on that record.