Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -0.10% across the same tape.
43 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
PAYX
Paychex
+7.52%
58% UP / 42% DOWNcrowd split · 45 calls
58% called itdirectional accuracy
2024-11-01historical decision date
-0.23%Monkey Index contribution
Fears of a hiring slowdown faded as the Federal Reserve started cutting rates in autumn 2024, lifting Paychex while traders bet on a soft landing for the small businesses whose payrolls it runs. That window closed on the eve of the US presidential election, and the post-vote rush into domestic stocks carried the rally straight through.
chart 2
TGT
Target
+0.82%
51% UP / 49% DOWNcrowd split · 45 calls
51% called itdirectional accuracy
2005-05-27historical decision date
-0.06%Monkey Index contribution
Cheap credit and the mid-2000s housing boom were pouring cash into suburban shopping aisles, and Target had just sold off its old department stores to go all in on upmarket discount retail. Buyers kept the shares grinding higher while the suburban expansion rolled on.
chart 3
AIG
AIG
+1.93%
58% UP / 42% DOWNcrowd split · 45 calls
58% called itdirectional accuracy
2022-01-07historical decision date
+0.02%Monkey Index contribution
With inflation biting and the Fed signalling higher interest rates at the start of 2022, money was rotating fast out of expensive tech and into old-guard financials. Big insurers like AIG stood to earn far more on their massive bond portfolios once yields climbed, and buyers kept pressing the advantage as the new year opened.
chart 4
BAC
Bank of America
-0.64%
72% UP / 28% DOWNcrowd split · 43 calls
28% called itdirectional accuracy
2005-05-27historical decision date
+0.02%Monkey Index contribution
Spring 2005 sat right at the crest of the American housing boom, with the Fed steadily nudging rates higher while Bank of America was busy assembling a coast-to-coast consumer and mortgage giant. The shares drifted sideways here, giving no hint of the subprime storm that would nearly wipe the bank out three years later.
chart 5
SYK
Stryker
-2.96%
51% UP / 49% DOWNcrowd split · 43 calls
49% called itdirectional accuracy
2012-02-29historical decision date
+0.15%Monkey Index contribution
Patients had been putting off hip and knee replacements since the 2008 crash, leaving medical-device makers like Stryker priced for a slow recovery. Three straight months of relief rally ran out of buyers here as worries over new US healthcare taxes set back in.