Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -1.01% across the same tape.
46 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
CI
Cigna
+4.47%
70% UP / 30% DOWNcrowd split · 50 calls
70% called itdirectional accuracy
2025-03-25historical decision date
-0.05%Monkey Index contribution
After a bruised end to 2024 across US health insurers over rising medical bills and pharmacy-middleman scrutiny, Cigna walked away from a Humana merger and pledged the cash to buybacks instead. As tariff nerves rattled the wider market in early 2025, investors treated this corner of healthcare as a shelter and kept bidding the recovery higher.
chart 2
NEM
Newmont
-4.84%
78% UP / 22% DOWNcrowd split · 49 calls
22% called itdirectional accuracy
2019-09-23historical decision date
-0.24%Monkey Index contribution
Gold was breaking out of a six-year slump on US-China trade nerves and the Fed's shift back to cutting rates, and Newmont had just swallowed Goldcorp to become the world's largest bullion miner. After a sharp summer run for safe havens, bullion cooled in late September and the miners gave back ground with it.
chart 3
PAYX
Paychex
-5.78%
78% UP / 22% DOWNcrowd split · 46 calls
22% called itdirectional accuracy
2004-12-31historical decision date
-0.41%Monkey Index contribution
Small-business hiring was finally picking up and the Fed had started lifting interest rates off the floor, giving payroll processor Paychex a double tailwind from growing client headcounts and the interest earned on cash held between paydays. After a strong run into New Year's Eve, the first week of 2005 gave back a chunk of the rally.
chart 4
ELV
Elevance Health
-5.93%
65% UP / 35% DOWNcrowd split · 46 calls
35% called itdirectional accuracy
2016-06-20historical decision date
-0.30%Monkey Index contribution
US health insurers spent the spring of 2016 nursing losses on Affordable Care Act exchanges while antitrust regulators closed in on the sector's blockbuster merger wave. Still called Anthem at the time, Elevance Health was fighting to rescue its takeover of Cigna as sellers pressed harder into late June.
chart 5
ORCL
Oracle
-0.92%
72% UP / 28% DOWNcrowd split · 46 calls
28% called itdirectional accuracy
2022-04-01historical decision date
-0.01%Monkey Index contribution
High-multiple tech was unravelling as central banks turned hawkish in early 2022, and the street still treated Oracle as legacy database plumbing rather than a cloud contender. The shares were still well short of the AI data-centre demand that would later wake the business up.