Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned +0.24% across the same tape.
49 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
DUK
Duke Energy
-2.49%
69% UP / 31% DOWNcrowd split · 52 calls
31% called itdirectional accuracy
2010-11-05historical decision date
+0.03%Monkey Index contribution
With interest rates pinned near zero after the financial crisis, income-starved investors spent autumn 2010 bidding up steady utility dividends like Duke Energy as bond substitutes. Once the Federal Reserve finally unveiled its second round of quantitative easing in early November, money rotated back toward riskier trades and the yield rally took a breather.
chart 2
MA
Mastercard
-0.37%
78% UP / 22% DOWNcrowd split · 50 calls
22% called itdirectional accuracy
2020-08-07historical decision date
+0.02%Monkey Index contribution
Closed borders had wiped out lucrative travel spending during the first pandemic summer, leaving Mastercard to lean on the sudden boom in online shopping and contactless payments at the till. By August that recovery trade had run out of steam, and the rally stalled while the world waited for international flights to return.
chart 3
MMM
3M
+4.82%
66% UP / 34% DOWNcrowd split · 50 calls
66% called itdirectional accuracy
2023-08-23historical decision date
+0.15%Monkey Index contribution
Years of mounting lawsuits over forever chemicals and faulty military earplugs had turned the Post-it maker into a Wall Street outcast, trading purely on legal headlines rather than factory output. This August week brought the long-awaited earplug settlement, clearing the air and kicking off a recovery that has more than doubled the shares since.
chart 4
SLB
Schlumberger
+0.09%
86% UP / 14% DOWNcrowd split · 49 calls
86% called itdirectional accuracy
2020-08-28historical decision date
+0.00%Monkey Index contribution
Summer 2020 was brutal for the oil patch, with rigs sitting idle after the spring crude crash and the world's biggest oilfield-services firm cutting deep as drillers froze their budgets. After fading for weeks off the June reopening bounce, the slide finally went flat here while traders waited to see when planes and commuters would burn fuel again.
chart 5
MRK
Merck
-1.44%
69% UP / 31% DOWNcrowd split · 49 calls
31% called itdirectional accuracy
2016-07-14historical decision date
+0.04%Monkey Index contribution
Post-Brexit nerves had pushed money straight into defensive dividend payers, while Merck's cancer drug Keytruda was quietly turning an old pharma giant back into a growth story. After a steady summer climb, the rally simply paused here to catch its breath.