Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -0.30% across the same tape.
53 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
FDX
FedEx
+1.16%
79% UP / 21% DOWNcrowd split · 56 calls
79% called itdirectional accuracy
2017-05-22historical decision date
+0.01%Monkey Index contribution
Every parcel moving from the high street to the doorstep meant more volume on FedEx vans and planes, yet Wall Street spent the spring of 2017 fretting that Amazon was quietly building a rival delivery network of its own. The stock had drifted sideways through the quarter while investors argued over whether booming e-commerce was a windfall for the couriers or a margin trap.
chart 2
ORCL
Oracle
-0.09%
64% UP / 36% DOWNcrowd split · 53 calls
36% called itdirectional accuracy
2018-06-22historical decision date
+0.00%Monkey Index contribution
Mid-2018 was peak scepticism for old-guard enterprise tech, with the street convinced that Amazon and Microsoft were eating Oracle's database business faster than its own cloud could grow. The shares spent the summer treading water as a sleepy value play, years before AI data-centre demand turned the company back into a heavyweight.
chart 3
NVDA
Nvidia
+4.78%
49% UP / 51% DOWNcrowd split · 53 calls
49% called itdirectional accuracy
2004-08-20historical decision date
+0.14%Monkey Index contribution
In the summer of 2004, the market saw Nvidia as nothing more than a bruised PC graphics-card maker losing ground to ATI, and dumped the stock accordingly. That August floor held, and a business built for video games has returned +227365.0% since by ending up at the centre of the artificial-intelligence buildout.
chart 4
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb
-0.76%
66% UP / 34% DOWNcrowd split · 53 calls
34% called itdirectional accuracy
2010-09-20historical decision date
+0.02%Monkey Index contribution
With the Plavix patent cliff looming, Wall Street treated Bristol-Myers Squibb as a defensive dividend stock trying to buy its way into a new pipeline before the old blockbusters expired. After a steady summer climb, the rally simply ran out of steam here.
chart 5
NSC
Norfolk Southern
-15.76%
51% UP / 49% DOWNcrowd split · 53 calls
49% called itdirectional accuracy
2020-03-13historical decision date
-0.48%Monkey Index contribution
Mid-March 2020 was the height of the initial COVID panic, when traders were pricing American freight rail as if the physical economy was shutting down for good. The market had one more brutal week of forced selling left in it before the floor finally arrived.