Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned +0.12% across the same tape.
82 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
SYK
Stryker
-3.29%
42% UP / 58% DOWNcrowd split · 86 calls
58% called itdirectional accuracy
2005-03-24historical decision date
-0.03%Monkey Index contribution
Replacing the baby boomers' hips and knees looked like an ironclad growth story, but early 2005 brought a broad cooling across premium medtech. Sellers were not finished yet.
chart 2
CL
Colgate-Palmolive
-1.51%
65% UP / 35% DOWNcrowd split · 85 calls
35% called itdirectional accuracy
2021-08-02historical decision date
-0.02%Monkey Index contribution
Supply chain snarls and raw-material inflation were squeezing margins across consumer staples, leaving defensive giants firmly out of favour. Sellers were not done yet.
chart 3
GOOGL
Alphabet
+4.74%
66% UP / 34% DOWNcrowd split · 83 calls
66% called itdirectional accuracy
2008-08-05historical decision date
+0.05%Monkey Index contribution
With the credit crunch spreading, the market feared an advertising slump would drag the search giant down with the banks. This was the brief summer bounce before the autumn crash.
chart 4
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
-0.72%
87% UP / 13% DOWNcrowd split · 83 calls
13% called itdirectional accuracy
2014-02-13historical decision date
+0.02%Monkey Index contribution
The historic post-crisis settlements were finally clearing, but with interest rates pinned near zero, the market still doubted whether big banks could produce real earnings. The rally paused for breath.
chart 5
PH
Parker Hannifin
+3.34%
80% UP / 20% DOWNcrowd split · 82 calls
80% called itdirectional accuracy
2008-04-28historical decision date
+0.10%Monkey Index contribution
Bear Stearns had just been rescued and the market convinced itself the credit crisis was contained, sparking a fierce spring rebound across heavy industry. The relief rally still had legs.