Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -0.03% across the same tape.
92 desks completed all five charts.
Markets spent the spring of 2004 stuck in neutral, waiting for the Federal Reserve to kick off its first rate-hiking cycle in four years. For a cash-heavy insurer waiting on higher bond yields, nobody was in any hurry to break the stalemate.
Global shipping bottlenecks and surging freight rates had everyone convinced retail margins were about to get crushed before Christmas. Sheer scale proved the ultimate defence, and the steady autumn climb never broke stride.
The market was still treating the business as a thin-margin online retailer, with the cloud division barely on the street's radar. The holiday momentum simply kept rolling.
Surging energy costs were squeezing industrial margins, but the mid-2000s construction boom was still keeping demand remarkably firm. After a steady climb into the spring, the shares paused and quietly held their ground.
Heavy industrials were riding a wave of global capital spending, brushing aside early cracks in the US housing market. After a brisk three-month climb, the shares paused for breath.