Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -1.06% across the same tape.
66 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
AAPL
Apple
-11.18%
61% UP / 39% DOWNcrowd split · 69 calls
39% called itdirectional accuracy
2025-04-02historical decision date
-0.56%Monkey Index contribution
Tariff threats were hanging over big tech and consumer spending had cooled, so the market was cutting back on hardware giants. Sellers were nowhere near done.
chart 2
TFC
Truist
-1.08%
81% UP / 19% DOWNcrowd split · 68 calls
19% called itdirectional accuracy
2021-02-19historical decision date
+0.03%Monkey Index contribution
Vaccine breakthroughs had just launched the grand reopening trade, pulling massive sums out of tech and into regional lenders. This was where the three-month surge finally paused for breath.
chart 3
BMY
Bristol-Myers Squibb
-0.34%
50% UP / 50% DOWNcrowd split · 66 calls
50% called itdirectional accuracy
2019-05-10historical decision date
+0.02%Monkey Index contribution
Wall Street was treating big pharma deals with deep suspicion, convinced pipeline bets were far too risky. Buyers refused to step in and the shares simply sat in the trough.
chart 4
CMI
Cummins
+12.34%
56% UP / 44% DOWNcrowd split · 66 calls
56% called itdirectional accuracy
2009-04-22historical decision date
-0.37%Monkey Index contribution
The financial crisis was at its absolute trough and global trade was frozen, so half the street thought heavy industrial demand was dead for years. This is the week the bounce turned into a genuine recovery.
chart 5
NSC
Norfolk Southern
-5.58%
55% UP / 45% DOWNcrowd split · 66 calls
45% called itdirectional accuracy
2024-12-06historical decision date
-0.17%Monkey Index contribution
Soft-landing optimism had carried freight rails into a late-autumn bounce, but underlying shipping demand had not actually recovered. Sellers were not done.