Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -0.02% across the same tape.
89 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
PRU
Prudential
-0.76%
76% UP / 24% DOWNcrowd split · 98 calls
24% called itdirectional accuracy
2016-08-08historical decision date
+0.01%Monkey Index contribution
Post-Brexit jitters and record-low bond yields had the whole insurance sector pinned to the floor. The mid-summer bounce hit a wall almost immediately.
chart 2
MO
Altria
+1.41%
42% UP / 58% DOWNcrowd split · 95 calls
42% called itdirectional accuracy
2022-07-05historical decision date
-0.01%Monkey Index contribution
As the 2022 inflation scare took hold, rising yields had knocked traditional dividend havens out of favour across the board. This is the week the selling finally ran out of steam.
chart 3
DUK
Duke Energy
-2.46%
75% UP / 25% DOWNcrowd split · 93 calls
25% called itdirectional accuracy
2014-09-05historical decision date
+0.02%Monkey Index contribution
Low interest rates had turned boring utility dividends into the market's main shelter for yield-starved capital. This is the week the long summer climb ran out of buyers.
chart 4
SPGI
S&P Global
-0.27%
64% UP / 36% DOWNcrowd split · 91 calls
36% called itdirectional accuracy
2010-04-26historical decision date
+0.01%Monkey Index contribution
Post-crisis regulations were bearing down on credit rating giants, so investors were in no hurry to buy into the recovery. The spring slide simply ran out of steam.
chart 5
MCO
Moody's
-1.56%
54% UP / 46% DOWNcrowd split · 89 calls
46% called itdirectional accuracy
2017-05-11historical decision date
-0.05%Monkey Index contribution
Ultra-low interest rates and tax-cut talk had corporate borrowing at full throttle, keeping the rating giants in easy money. Traders simply took a breath after a steady spring run.