Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -0.02% across the same tape.
88 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
ELV
Elevance Health
+3.32%
83% UP / 17% DOWNcrowd split · 90 calls
83% called itdirectional accuracy
2010-11-04historical decision date
+0.03%Monkey Index contribution
The Affordable Care Act had just passed, leaving the market convinced health insurers were heading for a brutal squeeze on profits. Buyers looked past the regulatory panic, and the autumn rally carried straight on.
chart 2
C
Citigroup
+1.14%
49% UP / 51% DOWNcrowd split · 90 calls
49% called itdirectional accuracy
2018-06-04historical decision date
+0.03%Monkey Index contribution
Trade war talk and a flattening yield curve had big bank shares sliding all spring, even with interest rates on the rise. This was the week the selling finally paused and buyers carved out a floor.
chart 3
T
AT&T
-0.87%
69% UP / 31% DOWNcrowd split · 89 calls
31% called itdirectional accuracy
2024-09-17historical decision date
-0.03%Monkey Index contribution
With interest rate cuts on the horizon, investors spent the summer piling back into steady dividend payers after years on the sidelines. This was the week the rally paused for breath.
chart 4
ROK
Rockwell Automation
+2.31%
39% UP / 61% DOWNcrowd split · 89 calls
39% called itdirectional accuracy
2008-06-12historical decision date
-0.02%Monkey Index contribution
Bear Stearns had just been rescued and the market was betting factory automation could shrug off the credit crunch. This was the brief summer bounce before the autumn crash hit.
chart 5
PNC
PNC Financial
+1.21%
81% UP / 19% DOWNcrowd split · 88 calls
81% called itdirectional accuracy
2005-08-12historical decision date
-0.04%Monkey Index contribution
The mid-2000s housing boom was running hot and credit felt practically risk-free, making regional banking about as comfortable as it gets. The quiet summer drift simply carried on.