Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -0.19% across the same tape.
67 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
GIS
General Mills
-0.69%
42% UP / 58% DOWNcrowd split · 73 calls
58% called itdirectional accuracy
2023-01-18historical decision date
-0.01%Monkey Index contribution
The 2022 bear market had driven investors into defensive staples, treating packaged food as the ultimate safe harbour against inflation. This quiet stall was the peak of that crowded trade.
chart 2
ABT
Abbott Laboratories
+1.73%
71% UP / 29% DOWNcrowd split · 72 calls
71% called itdirectional accuracy
2008-12-24historical decision date
-0.05%Monkey Index contribution
The 2008 crash was forcing investors to dump even reliable healthcare giants just to raise cash. Into Christmas week, the indiscriminate selling finally exhausted itself.
chart 3
WM
Waste Management
+0.00%
80% UP / 20% DOWNcrowd split · 69 calls
20% called itdirectional accuracy
2013-02-01historical decision date
+0.00%Monkey Index contribution
Investors were still nervous about the wider recovery, turning unglamorous, cash-generative monopolies into popular safe havens. After a sharp winter climb, the buying simply paused for breath.
chart 4
PG
Procter & Gamble
+0.19%
54% UP / 46% DOWNcrowd split · 69 calls
54% called itdirectional accuracy
2010-04-09historical decision date
+0.01%Monkey Index contribution
The post-crisis recovery was barely a year old and nobody quite trusted it yet, so money kept crowding into defensive household essentials. It was never going to be an explosive week, but the safety trade quietly held its ground.
chart 5
GOOGL
Alphabet
+4.41%
85% UP / 15% DOWNcrowd split · 67 calls
85% called itdirectional accuracy
2009-09-10historical decision date
-0.13%Monkey Index contribution
The financial crisis had hit advertising hard, and plenty of investors still treated the summer rally as a bear-market trap. As search spending proved resilient, the buyers simply carried on.