Five anonymised historical charts were dealt to every player. The Monkey Index returned -0.33% across the same tape.
111 desks completed all five charts.
chart 1
MDLZ
Mondelez
+1.64%
59% UP / 41% DOWNcrowd split · 113 calls
59% called itdirectional accuracy
2005-01-27historical decision date
+0.05%Monkey Index contribution
With rates rising across late 2004, half the market had written off consumer staples as dull income plays. This is the week the quiet buyers took control.
chart 2
AMGN
Amgen
+2.67%
76% UP / 24% DOWNcrowd split · 112 calls
76% called itdirectional accuracy
2019-12-13historical decision date
-0.13%Monkey Index contribution
Washington drug pricing rhetoric had haunted big pharma all summer, but defensive cash flows took charge as the 2019 year-end rally took off. The buyers were not done yet.
chart 3
AMZN
Amazon
-2.68%
59% UP / 41% DOWNcrowd split · 112 calls
41% called itdirectional accuracy
2020-12-03historical decision date
+0.03%Monkey Index contribution
The initial stay-at-home surge had run out of steam, leaving big tech treading water while the street rotated into reopening stocks. Sellers were not done yet.
chart 4
COP
ConocoPhillips
-2.36%
77% UP / 23% DOWNcrowd split · 112 calls
23% called itdirectional accuracy
2006-12-15historical decision date
-0.12%Monkey Index contribution
Crude oil had backed off its summer record, so half the street thought the commodity supercycle was finished. Energy stocks rallied straight through the doubt, though buyers finally took a breather.
chart 5
CRM
Salesforce
+14.69%
63% UP / 37% DOWNcrowd split · 111 calls
63% called itdirectional accuracy
2008-12-02historical decision date
-0.15%Monkey Index contribution
Lehman Brothers had just collapsed and corporate spending was expected to freeze, so Wall Street dumped enterprise software along with the banks. This was the week buyers stepped into the panic.