{
 "as_of": "2026-08-25",
 "source": "research/data/charts.csv + llm_calls.csv (the released files)",
 "climatology_brier": 0.2485,
 "chart_level": {
  "charts": 241,
  "charts_rose_pct": 57.7,
  "crowd_tied_charts": 6,
  "non_tied_charts": 235,
  "always_up_pct": 58.7,
  "always_up_ci95": [
   52.3,
   64.8
  ],
  "wisdom_pct": 55.3,
  "wisdom_ci95": [
   48.9,
   61.5
  ],
  "fade_pct": 44.7,
  "fade_ci95": [
   38.5,
   51.1
  ],
  "majority_up_share_pct": 75.3,
  "majority_down_charts": 58,
  "majority_down_rose_pct": 56.9,
  "textbook_lean_charts": 155,
  "textbook_paid_pct": 49.0,
  "textbook_paid_ci95": [
   41.3,
   56.8
  ],
  "textbook_up_leans": 103,
  "textbook_up_paid_pct": 53.4,
  "textbook_down_leans": 52,
  "textbook_down_paid_pct": 40.4,
  "calls_behind_rows": 39569,
  "call_weighted_accuracy_pct": 53.9,
  "call_weighted_always_up_pct": 59.4
 },
 "llm_section": {
  "charts_all_answered": 243,
  "always_up_pct": 57.6,
  "always_up_ci95": [
   51.3,
   63.7
  ],
  "crowd_non_tied_charts": 237,
  "crowd_majority_pct": 55.3,
  "crowd_majority_ci95": [
   48.9,
   61.5
  ],
  "majority_vote_pct": 54.7,
  "majority_vote_ci95": [
   48.4,
   60.9
  ],
  "models_agreed_charts": 155,
  "models": {
   "Claude Opus 5": {
    "accuracy_pct": 55.6,
    "accuracy_ci95": [
     49.3,
     61.7
    ],
    "mean_confidence": 56.7,
    "brier_vs_up": 0.2471,
    "brier_skill_vs_climatology": 0.005
   },
   "Gemini 3.1 Pro": {
    "accuracy_pct": 52.3,
    "accuracy_ci95": [
     46.0,
     58.5
    ],
    "mean_confidence": 59.6,
    "brier_vs_up": 0.2557,
    "brier_skill_vs_climatology": -0.029
   },
   "GPT-5.6-sol": {
    "accuracy_pct": 50.6,
    "accuracy_ci95": [
     44.4,
     56.8
    ],
    "mean_confidence": 56.3,
    "brier_vs_up": 0.2514,
    "brier_skill_vs_climatology": -0.012
   }
  }
 },
 "patterns_csv_rows": 11
}